How Many SEC Wins Does LSU Need To Be A Top 8 Seed?
LSU currently sits at 15-9 in SEC play, ranked #3 in D1 Baseball’s latest rankings and #8 currently in RPI. They only have two SEC weekends left with home series against #7 Arkansas and a road series at South Carolina. If you have listened to the show or followed our socials you have probably heard us talking about the chase for 20 conference wins, but why is that number important? We went back to the last 10 years (9 NCAA Tournaments because 2020 was cancelled) to show you.
Only one team has won 17 conference games and earned a Top 8 seed in the past ten years, which was Georgia just last season in 2024 when they got the 8th seed. 17 wins for LSU would mean they lose both remaining series which we think is extremely unlikely to happen.
Over the past ten years, 9 teams have finished with 18 wins in the SEC. Only 3 of these teams have earned a top 8 national seed, those teams being Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Georgia all in the 2018 tournament. The most realistic path to 18 wins for LSU is probably losing the series to Arkansas 2 games to 1, then winning the South Carolina series 2 games to 1. In our opinion, 18 conference wins would put LSU on the bubble of the Top 8.
19 conference wins would make us feel safe about LSU’s odds to get a top 8 national seed. Over the past ten years, 9 teams have finished with 19 SEC wins and 8 have gotten a top 8 seed. The only team to be outside the top 8 with 19 conference wins was Kentucky in 2017. Therefore, 19 conference wins has gotten every SEC team a top 8 seed the past 6 NCAA tournaments. This is a very realistic outcome for LSU. Take 2 of 3 in each of the last two weekends and they’ll be at 19 wins. They could lose 2 of 3 against Arkansas and sweep South Carolina to still get to 19 conference wins.
If LSU finishes extremely strong with a series win over Arkansas and a sweep of South Carolina they will be at 20+ conference wins. This will guarantee the Tigers a top 8 seed. The past ten years 19/21 teams with 20+ conference wins were a top 8 seed with the only exceptions being South Carolina in 2016 and Vanderbilt in 2015. That means over the past 8 years the 19 SEC teams that finished with 20+ wins were all top 8 seeds.
It is the home stretch for the Tigers and they sit in a great spot to secure a top 8 national seed and make the road to Omaha go through Alex Box, but they need to handle their business. That starts this weekend against Arkansas in Alex Box.
